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Trinity basin · Region C · North Central
TWDB reading Sep 19, 2026
USGS 08051100 — Ray Roberts Lk nr Pilot Point, TX
Extrapolated from the past 60 days
Falling roughly 729 acre-feet per day. At that rate the conservation pool would be exhausted in about 2.8 years.
A straight-line extrapolation, not a forecast. It assumes the recent rate continues unchanged, ignoring seasonality, rainfall and managed releases — and drawdown normally slows as a reservoir falls. Treat it as a severity signal, not a date.
US Drought Monitor for Denton County, Sep 15, 2026
Conditions in the county containing the dam. A reservoir is filled by a watershed that often reaches well beyond one county, and releases are managed, so local drought is context rather than an explanation of the level.
How today compares with 39 years of record for this date
At 95%, Ray Roberts Lake is below normal for this date, lower than 56% of years on record. It was last this low in 2023.
Percentiles pool the ±3 days around today across every year on record, so “normal” means normal for this time of year. Conservation capacity is re-surveyed over time, so percent-full comparisons across decades are close but not exact.
Daily TWDB observations, with the normal range for each date
Normal range for the date (25th–75th percentile)Median year
Past 7 days, typically 15-minute readings. USGS elevations use a published datum that may differ slightly from the TWDB daily value above.
CoCoRaHS observers within 60 km of the dam
Rain measured near the dam, not across the watershed. A reservoir is fed by a catchment that can reach hundreds of kilometres upstream, so heavy local rain does not necessarily mean inflow — and a rising lake often reflects rain far from here. Readings are volunteer observations taken once each morning.